Thanks for reviving this topic Scott. My summary would be: same as the old lottery system except you’re doing the reservation instead of the ranger.
Some good contest opportunities here with # of applications and release schedule. I’d guess they limit releases to standard working hours), but 7 days a week. I’d guess they use the entire 6 weeks to spread things out, so 500 a week or 71 a day, in 1 hour blocks at 7 an hour. They probably round those, to 560 a week, 80 a day, and 10 an hour and just finish a couple days early (give time buffer). So there will still be ‘competition’ with whatever schedule (even if spreading over 24 hours, at most 20 minutes between openings). That said, availability should be visible (and If not we can make it visible here), so you should know in advance to your window opening what you’re shooting for.
I am optimistic there will be more effective availability:
- Duplicate entires now won’t be filled (multiple applications for the same group)
- Ranger’s would be able to find things average applicants would not, compounded by Rec.gov confusing cross-area interface
- Assumption that people’s availability range /intentions will be smaller come time of reservations (closer to the date more conflicts, change of mind / vacation plan, and assumption people put broader ranges in application as to avoid a rejection)
- Assumption that there will be ‘northern circle or bust’ types that upon finding it not available will not pursue alternates (or won’t be able to find more complex solutions).
That said, I believe it filled fully rather quickly during last years melee. I believe some of that was the lingering Covid demand bubble (thinking this will keep decreasing) as well as ‘fear of missing out’ during the reservation frenzy.
The 3000 limit is interesting. It has hovered around/above that for awhile. It will be interesting to see if they hit it (I think they will, with closer to 3000 than 4000 applications).
- 2007 800 Link
- 2008
- 2009
- 2010
- 2011
- 2012 1300 Link
- 2013 1600 Link
- 2014
- 2015 2981 Link
- 2016
- 2017
- 2018 2640 25% more in 2019
- 2019 3300 Link
- 2020 11550 3.5X of 2019 Link
- 2021 3700 Link
- 2022 4000 Link