Current weather?

[smahurin]

http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/ ... /25485125/

The tribune had a graph which the online article doesn't include for some reason. The combined drainages into larger areas but the pertinent ones (as far as glacier is concerned) were the sun/marias drainages (east side of the park) snow pack levels were at approximately 50% of average. And the flathead (west side of the park) was somewhere around 70% of average.

[Ear Mountain]

http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/ ... /25485125/

The tribune had a graph which the online article doesn't include for some reason. The combined drainages into larger areas but the pertinent ones (as far as glacier is concerned) were the sun/marias drainages (east side of the park) snow pack levels were at approximately 50% of average. And the flathead (west side of the park) was somewhere around 70% of average.

That's the bad news. One glimmer of good news is that this year's total moisture is about average. But keep in mind that the "water year" begins October 1 each year and we had plenty of early snow that melted away before winter settled in. Even so the east side is very dry. And streams are following slightly higher than normal for this time of year because what snow we did get is melting or has melted already.

[PeteE]

Hi Folks:

This is not a good forecast.
Many low elevation areas in the Flathead, GNP, and the Bob are already pretty dry.
I know that's true about some of the areas of GNP I have seen over the last month or so.
And now "record heat" here already in late June.

This does not bode well for the fire danger...and the firefighters know it.
I talked to two young USFS firefighters in Marcus's Market the other day.
They agreed that it's looking bad at the moment.

So if you are permitted a campfire where you are camping, please be extremely careful.
It's just common sense...
Keep a bucket of water beside your fire at all times.
Never leave your fire unattended.
Keep your fire small and make sure it's completely out before leaving the fire pit or going bed.

pete

And stay hydrated!
I'm hoping to see JayW this weekend and do some hiking.

It'll be a little cooler on the East side, but not much


000
FXUS65 KMSO 242012
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
212 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

...HISTORIC HEAT WAVE COMING THIS WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms are possible this evening across
the Sapphire mountains through Butte and Anaconda. Otherwise, a
warming and drying trend has started that will last will culminate
early next week with historically very high temperatures.

Beginning Thursday afternoon, a strong ridge of high
pressure will build over the Northern Rockies and will lead to
increasing temperatures and continued dry conditions. This
unseasonably warm ridge is expected to bring record heat over the
weekend. High temperatures is expected to be in the upper 90s to
low 100s for most valley locations. People planning on doing any
outdoor activities should stay well hydrated and pay special
attention to the elderly, children and pets.

By late Sunday, the ridge axis begins to move to our east, which
will allow moisture to move through the ridge. This will increase
cloud cover and will keep nighttime temperatures warm, with most
locations staying in the 60s, so there will be limited relief
overnight. An increase in moisture will allow thunderstorms to
develop over the terrain on Sunday and Monday. This will bring
breezier conditions and the threat for dry lightning. The strong
ridge of high pressure is expected to continue through middle of
next week.

&&

[scott-atl]

good rains in south and easterm MT the last few days. hopefully get some in the mountains soon. swiftcurrent valley was flooded when I was there june 8. little to no rain since. trans- planted hollyhocks before we left. probably didn't make it.

[PeteE]

Rain in SE Montana won't help.
Rain and weather systems move West to East.
There isn't going to be widespread rain any time soon around GNP.


00
FXUS65 KMSO 251014
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
414 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

...HISTORIC HEAT WAVE COMING THIS WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

Westerly flow aloft will transition to a ridge of high pressure
over the Northern Rockies by Friday, with very hot temperatures to
be present through at least the middle of next week. This will be
one of the earliest heat waves in history for the Northern
Rockies, with some locations to record the first ever 100 degree
day in June. Saturday and Sunday are anticipated to be the
warmest days for most locations in the next week, ahead of some
afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity moving around the high
pressure Sunday and Monday. The thunderstorm activity is unlikely
to bring much beneficial rainfall, however lightning-related
wildfire starts may occur. Considering all of the clouds present
during overnights from Sunday through at least the middle of next
week, overnight temperatures will stay exceptionally warm,
particularly over high terrain. We cannot emphasize enough the
dangers to public health with temperatures so warm for the next
week. Hydration and avoiding long exposure to the heat outdoors is
key to preventing heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and hyperthermia.
Extended exposure to hot temperatures, even considering the warm
overnights, can be fatal.

Model guidance has been inconsistent in characterizing the
strength and longevity of the hot ridge this weekend through next
week. It appears that most models currently agree that the ridge
will partially break down around the middle of next week and
transition the pattern to northwesterly flow aloft by the end of
the week. If this pattern change is to come true, temperatures
will definitely trend cooler, but remain still above the seasonal
average. There is plenty of uncertainty concerning other
implications of northwesterly flow transition, such as whether or
not precipitation chances will increase or if the transition will
involve some strong breezes. Considering any lightning strikes
that occur late this weekend through Monday, any wind later next
week will bring all hold-over smoldering wildfires to the
forefront of concern. The lightning activity and later winds will
be watched closely.

&&

[daveparker]

This has been a dry year for sure, but it is not the first time I have been through it, Summer of 98 was warm and dry, and then 2002, 03 was dry, just need to be careful and it will change, I would not be surprised to be slammed this winter.

[scott-atl]

had a close call at our place on the eastside back in july 2002. I was out of town on business and got a call from a friend that was staying there telling the cabin was about to burn down. it was a dry/hot summer and evidently the wildfire was started by some fireworks on the eastside of the Hudson bay divide. the wind was from the SE and the fire was bearing down, embers on the deck and all when miraculously, the wind changed from the north and blew the fire back east over the ridge right behind our place. a north wind is pretty rare this time of the year, prevailing being SW. we have a nice stand of aspen just south of our cabin that would give us some break in lighter winds but if the wind is howling, nothing you can do.

[Ear Mountain]

...HISTORIC HEAT WAVE COMING THIS WEEKEND...

I know the perfect place to be this weekend. Hike to Virginia Falls and take a nice pad to lay on. Follow the trail that goes to the rock slab at the base of the falls and lay down on your pad where the mist from the falls will wash over you.

I'll be hiking in the Bob this weekend and expect it to be pretty hot. We're camping near a river though and some skinny dipping will be the order of the day.

[PeteE]

My current plan is just to be away from Whitefish for the weekend where it's predicted to be 97-99F.
Marginally better at Swiftcurrent 90F+-. Better yet near Piegan--extrapolated forecast there is for about 80F

Been a long week at work. Hope to get away by 2PM tomorrow and head to Swiftcurrent.
Once there, the plan is to meet JayW.
We plan on doing Piegan's summit Saturday(12miles RT +-3300ft of elv change)...
And something easier(at my request) on Sunday. ShangriLa or Snow Moon Basin.
Gonna suck in the sun and heat, but that's hikin'
I'll be tanking up containers at the creek near the Siyeh trail junction for the walk up from there..

Anyone else gonna be around this weekend?

pete

[liketohike]

have fun hiking this weekend...I'm looking forward to your pictures and trip report!:-)

[PeteE]

have fun hiking this weekend...I'm looking forward to your pictures and trip report!:-)

Hi "B"
Thanks! I will do my best.

pete

[scott-atl]

been mid 90's here in GA for the last few weeks. w the humidity it's been pretty tough. supposed to break tonight w mid 80's weekend. heading up to Pisgah mt. should be 50's at night up there. just remember, even if it's in the 90's out there it's dry heat....

[daveparker]

Hey dpratt,

Hmmmm

Cocktails on the deck overlooking the Whitefish Range, hmmmm

That sounds like it could be fun!

[PeteE]

Things are not looking too good for the 4th of July weekend.
Fireworks are now banned--a no brainer decision imo.

pete

National Weather Service Missoula MT
346 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...Today will be another quite warm day with high
temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday`s and near record
values.

Fourth of July, Saturday: High pressure will begin to weaken,
though high temperatures will remain very warm. Winds will
increase in the afternoon which will bring an increase in fire
danger. Wind gusts of 30 mph will be common Saturday afternoon
and evening. There will also be increased chances for
thunderstorms in portions of northwest Montana, mainly in Glacier
NP, Saturday evening and overnight. Winds will also shift to
easterly overnight with wind prone canyons and valleys, including
Clearwater Junction, Hellgate Canyon, and Bad Rock Canyon to see
stronger gusts.

Model guidance agree that cooler high temperatures are likely on
Sunday, especially in western Montana where high temperature
readings are going to be close to normal. Locations along the
divide may actually have high temperatures below normal, in the
60s and 70s. Part of the reason for the cooler temperatures, along
the divide, will be the presence of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday. Much of western Montana and eastern Idaho will have
increased shower and thunderstorm chances during Sunday, but the
best chance for any appreciable moisture will be in Glacier NP and
along the divide. Most of north central Idaho will remain hot with
little if any chance for showers.

High pressure is forecast to quickly return for Monday so
temperatures will again warm to 10 degrees above normal. Showers
and thunderstorms chances are also in the forecast for Monday
afternoon, mainly through Lemhi County, Idaho, and into southwest
Montana.

A more active weather pattern is being forecast by extended model
guidance for the second half of next week. The more active
weather pattern will allow for increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms and temperatures not quite as warm as the last 2
weeks but still slightly above normal.







Fire Weather Watch

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
535 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MTZ104-105-107>110-032200-
/O.CON.KMSO.FW.A.0001.150704T1200Z-150705T0300Z/
KOOTENAI-FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK-SALISH AND KOOTENAI RESERVATION-
EAST LOLO-BITTERROOT-DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-
535 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
ACROSS THE KOOTENAI...FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK...SALISH AND KOOTENAI
RESERVATION...EAST LOLO...BITTERROOT...DEERLODGE/WEST
BEAVERHEAD...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* WINDS: SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE.

* MINIMUM HUMIDITIES: SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS

* TIMING: WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA
SATURDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE... AND THEN SPREAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

[PeteE]

Red Flag Warning now.
No great surprise.

pete

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
107 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MTZ105-107-108-040715-
/O.UPG.KMSO.FW.A.0001.150704T1200Z-150705T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMSO.FW.W.0001.150704T1200Z-150705T0300Z/
FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK-SALISH AND KOOTENAI RESERVATION-EAST LOLO-
107 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK...
SALISH AND KOOTENAI RESERVATION...EAST LOLO...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS: SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE.

* MINIMUM HUMIDITIES: SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS

* TIMING: WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA
SATURDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE... AND THEN SPREAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

* A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO EASTERLY WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME AFTER ROUGHLY 1900LT ACROSS THE GLACIER PARK AREA ON
SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.