Current weather?

[Ear Mountain]

Pete,
One of the Great Falls weather guys said last night that there is nothing yet in the future to interrupt the ridge of high pressure bringing us this weather pattern. Reminds me some of 2000 when I built my home north of Choteau. There was very little snow that winter and I started construction on March 17. Work on the house was only interrupted a few times by high winds and once in April for three days by a snow storm. We had more than a few fires in the mountains that year too. While I am looking forward to spring and some backpacking and mountaineering, I share your concerns about a rough fire season.
Ralph

[smahurin]

I agree with both of you. While many people moan and groan, big winters and wet springs really are beneficial for those hoping to spend lots of time in the mountains throughout the summer and fall.

[PeteE]

Yeah, some people here tend to forget that virtually all the water around here comes from snow and rainfall.
Summer is still a long way off but the long term info I read from the NWS is not encouraging
As Ralph noted, high pressure will continue to dominate for the next week. Snow melt will accelerate with this local forecast:

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 54. South southeast wind around 9 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Light south wind becoming southwest 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light south southwest after midnight.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 59. South wind 3 to 7 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Wednesday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers before noon, then a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 33.

Thursday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 62.

[smahurin]

http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snowplot.cgi?MANM8

Some depressing info. The many glacier snotel site is reporting SWE approaching the record lows. Obviously as others have said, there is a long way till summer, but thats still saddening to me.

For what its worth, flattop's snotel site was at least reporting SWE as "only" below average, so a little more promising on the west side.

[PeteE]

http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snowplot.cgi?MANM8

Some depressing info. The many glacier snotel site is reporting SWE approaching the record lows. Obviously as others have said, there is a long way till summer, but thats still saddening to me.

For what its worth, flattop's snotel site was at least reporting SWE as "only" below average, so a little more promising on the west side.

It's good that Flattop is "only" a little below average but...
Don't bet on things being better on the west side even though we're typically "wetter" on this side of the divide.
We may get a little rain in the next few days but there is virtually no snow cover to speak of below about 5000ft.

pete

[smahurin]

http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/snowplot.cgi?FTMM8

Flattop mountains shown above. Ya I realize that snotel sites are a single point indication of conditions and not a blanket indicator of overall snow accumulation in the area, but they at least offer some insight into what is going on. Just looking at the values on the graphs it looks like flattop is at about 80% of average, whereas many glacer is reporting about 25% of average.

That seems crazy for early march to have no snow cover below 5k in the area. Here's hoping for a wet spring to help cover some of the issues, but who knows.

[PeteE]

Yeah, it is a nutty season over here.
Back in December I thought, "WOW! I'm loving all the snow and really cold temps."
I was thinking along with many people that this would be a great winter season.
And in fact, the ski hill set a record during the Christmas holdidays.
Then after that nice dump we had in early January it was like someone flipped a switch.

I was out walking around with a friend who lives near CFalls. The grassy surface in this pasture was dry and "crumbly" down 3-4" into the soil.
Anecdotal I know, and I'm no expert by any means, but I don't think that's a good sign.

I was exaggerating a bit, but not a lot. There is some snow cover below 5k around here, but it's spotty and localized. They had a dog sled event of some sort out near Polebridge. No way was the snow good though.
And this mornings paper announced the small ski hill operation up near Libby closed for the season.
Snow pack up there in the Kootenai is 59% of normal.

We might get a decent rain this weekend--as much as 1 to 1 1/2 inches.
I'll find something to do inside.

Oh and regarding the Flattop Snotel. The higher elevations are closer to normal in many areas.
Many times when lower elevations were getting rain from January till even now, the higher country continued to get snow.

later

pete

[smahurin]

Interesting, well thanks for the insight.

I hope you get poured on

[PeteE]

Interesting, well thanks for the insight.

I hope you get poured on

I'm not sure I have any great insight, but thanks!

The good news is that we may get a decent rain event this weekend.
The bad news is in the last paragraph of this forecast discussion.
Underlining is mine for emphasis.

pete

00
FXUS65 KMSO 141023
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
421 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Breezy westerly winds will develop today and could cause some
impact to high profile vehicles across southwest Montana. A stiff
southerly breeze is expected to develop over Flathead Lake, but at
this time the strong winds may remain below 25 mph this afternoon.

A surge of subtropical moisture will begin to impact the Northern
Rockies with cloud cover and rainfall later today and continue
through midday Monday. Many high elevation locations around
Glacier Park, as well as across the northern Clearwater Mountains
in Idaho, are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of precipitation
during this time. Much of this precipitation will fall as rain at
least through midday Sunday. Rock and mudslides are a possibility
with rain falling on snow, as well as flow steadily increasing
within area small streams.

By Sunday afternoon, a relatively cold airmass will graze the
Glacier Park Region. Cold air from east of the Continental Divide
will bring snow levels down quickly, with snowfall down to 3000
feet by Monday morning. There is some uncertainty concerning how
far west the coldest air will move, however impacts from
accumulating snow on the roadways and low visibility should be
confined to the Highway 2 corridor Essex to Marias Pass and
Glacier Park itself. Elsewhere, a mix of rain and snow will
continue through midday Monday, with some impressive storm total
rainfall by that point.

Another and much weaker storm system is anticipated to move across
the Northern Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday. The impacts from this
second system will likely be minor in comparison to the previous
one, with widespread light rain showers and some high elevation
snowfall. For the most part, temperatures will recover near to or
above the seasonal average.

Thursday onward, global model solutions diverge dramatically for
the weather over the Northern Rockies. Weighing the various global
models, the forecast continues to reflect the persisting high
pressure ridge over the western US Thursday through early
Saturday. The GFS and Canadian models appear to support this
relatively dry, relatively warm forecast, while the European
model depicts a much more progressive scenario. Bottom line: the
ridge of high pressure that has persisted over the western US for
much of the past 2 months is likely to continue above normal
temperatures and relatively low precipitation chances (with the
exception of the current weekend).

[scott-atl]

Hard to predict the severity of the upcoming fire season. Seems like some big fire years followed big snow seasons. One of the worst was the year we had 4 feet in May. 2001/2002? Hoping for a wet spring and summer. I get back out June 2.

[PeteE]

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future"

Yogi Berra

[scott-atl]

nice. I understand the road into many glacier is wide open. maybe the higher passes will open earlier this season.

[Ear Mountain]

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future"

Yogi Berra

That's a good quote. There's nothing we can do about the weather anyway so it's better for my mind to not worry about long range forecasts or what might happen weatherize down the road. I'll be flexible and work with what comes. Right now that's mud season.

[PeteE]

it seems I'm one of those people who need to worry about "something".
I know why folks in some cultures carry "worry beads" now.

You're right though Ralph.
Rather pointless to worry about conditions months from now.

This time of year is typically boring, so I talk about weather because weather has fascinated me since I was a boy.
Growing up in central Florida, I used to put out a pan of water before bed if temps were forecast near freezing(rare back then).
Then get up before anyone to see if it had "frozen"

Yankees and other northern peoples may laugh now....then go back to your Facebook, or whatever....

pete

[PeteE]

Record Warm March

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/04/02/we ... latestnews